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Monday, October 29, 2012

Obama's Points in Florida: Rosemary has interesting comment

1 point race in Florida

PPP's newest Florida poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49/48, flipping the numbers from each of our last two polls of the state which found Romney leading by a point. Every poll PPP has conducted in the state since the first Presidential debate has found a one point race.
Obama's leading in Florida based on his strength with women (54/45), African Americans (89/10), and voters under 30 (55/39). Romney is strong with men (53/43), whites (57/39), and seniors (53/46). Romney also has narrow advantages with Hispanics (54/46) and independents (50/43).
Floridians actually trust Romney over Obama to deal both with the economy (50/46) and foreign policy (49/48) so something else is driving Obama's razor thin lead in the state. When asked to consider who won the debates as a whole voters pick Romney by a 47/46 margin, indicating that Obama's wins in the last two debates mostly made up for his overwhelming loss in the first one.
In Florida's Senate race incumbent Bill Nelson looks to have a pretty commanding lead heading into the final week of the campaign, 50/42 over Republican foe Connie Mack IV. Nelson's approval rating is on positive ground for the first time in quite a while at 44/41. Mack continues to be quite an unpopular candidate with only 36% of voters rating him favorably to 46% with a negative one. Nelson is winning independent voters 51/36 even as Obama is simultaneously losing them, and he's also taking 17% of the Republican vote.
Republican voters are slightly more enthusiastic than Democrats in Florida this fall with 72% of them saying they're 'very excited' to vote in the election to 68% of Democrats who say the same thing. It's a small difference but any little thing could matter in a state that's very closely divided at this point.
One final note: Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot in the state 48/45.
Posted by: Rosemary Osnato | October 29, 2012 at 02:06 AM
Although PPP is a good poll this Florida poll does not fit the demographics of the state. Although the Cuban population is large at 813,120 only 5% of them are registered to vote compared to the Mexican population of 363,925 and with a 59% registration. The Cubans in one poll are supporting Republicans 48/40 but Mexicans are for Obama at 70%. Also Puerto Ricans at 482,027 have a registration of 14% and are also in support of Obama and the democratic party by more then 60%.
It's not possible for Romney to be leading with Hispanics in Florida. Your poll must be using a Cuban little Havana list. I also think that there must have been a misunderstanding in your poll as to who won 2 out of the three debates. Obama won the foreign policy debate by a large margin.

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